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商贸英语|金融世界 第二十三讲

来源:www.sgrcc.com 2025-02-19
这一讲大家要跟你谈谈二十世纪末发生在亚洲的金融危机。

澳洲广播电台金融节目主持人巴里克拉克第一介绍了这场亚洲金融风暴是怎么样爆发的。他在谈话中用了如此一些词语:

1 overseas creditors1 国外债权人2 international capital flows 国际资本流动3 short-term capital 短期资本4 herd2 behavior 群体恐慌行为

巴里克拉克说:

The crisis became evident in July, 1997. Overseas creditors began withdrawing short-term capital from the region, placing intense pressure on the exchange rates for the currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Korea.

These five countries had been heavily dependent on international capital flows. In 1996, there was an inflow of $US 93 billion. But a year later the flow was reversed. In 1997 there was an outflow of $12 billion.

As capital was withdrawn3 from the region and the exchange rates of the five countries depreciated4, or fell, panic set in amongst foreign creditors.

The result was a deepening spiral. As capital was withdrawn, the exchange rate depreciated, leading to more capital outflows.

Economists5 call these panics 'herd behaviour'; where the creditors in a market all rush, or stampede, for the exit, trying to get out first.

Usually, their behaviour is not based on the real underlying6 economic conditions in the market , but rather on the behaviour and expected behaviour of other creditors.

下面大家把巴里克拉克的这段谈话及中文翻译分段听一遍:(英文略)

这场危机在一九九七年7月变得显而易见。国外债权人开始从这一区域撤出短期资本,使泰国、印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾和韩国这五国货币的兑换率遭到很大重压。

这五国都紧急依靠国际资本的注入。一九九六年,流入这类国家的资本是九百三十亿USD,但一年之后资本的流向逆转。一九九七年时有一百二十亿USD的资本流出。

伴随资本撤出这一区域与五国的货币汇率下调或跌落,外国债权人开始感到恐慌。

其结果是恶性循环。伴随资本的撤出,汇率下跌,致使更多的资本流出。

经济学家称这种恐慌是群体恐慌行为,就是市场上的债权人全都蜂拥或惊慌地要抢先退出市场。

一般他们不是依据市场的基本经济条件(根本准则)来采取行动,而是依据其他债权人的行为或是预计的行为来采取行。

下面大家把巴里克拉克的这段谈话原文再完整听一遍。(略)

二十世纪末亚洲的这场金融风暴爆发之飞速,破坏之紧急,令经济学家瞠目结舌。澳洲广播电台金融节目主持人巴里克拉克下面剖析了这场金融风暴的部分起因:

If financial panics are not new, the Asian crisis came as a complete surprise to virtually all commentators7. After all, the five Asian countries had shown remarkable8 growth in output, employment, productivity and exports over the past 20 years.

Warning signs became apparent from 1996, as these countries faced increased competition from China and Mexico in markets for manufacturing exports. Growth rates began to slow. But the real problem lay in their reliance on short-term capital flows from overseas. This capital can be moved quite quickly in and out of an economy. Economists call such flows 'indirect foreign investment' to distinguish them from longer term or 'direct foreign investment'.

While the five countries had deregulated their financial systems, increasing the number of banks and the ease of foreign borrowing, there was inadequate9 regulation and supervision10 of financial institutions. Indeed, in some cases, banks were allowed to break regulations on lending. The degree of risk in borrowing was seriously underestimated. Their exchange rates were also mildly overvalued as they targeted the US dollar.

These policy errors contributed to produce a fragile financial system - one which was vulnerable to a rapid reversal of capital flows. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the 1997 panic cannot be explained by the extent of the policy errors. Foreign creditors had a superficial understanding of the long-term prospects11 of the region, which meant that their behaviour was subject to wild swings.

下面大家分段听一遍巴里克拉克的谈话和中文翻译:(英文略)

假如说金融恐慌并不新奇的话,这场亚洲金融危机却大大出乎所有专家学者的意料之外。这五个亚洲国家过去二十年中毕竟在产量、就业、生产力和出口方面表现出了引人注目的增长。

从一九九六年开始,伴随这类国家在制造业出口市场上面临着来自中国和墨西哥不断增加的角逐,危险信号变得明确可见,增长速度放缓。但真的的麻烦在于这类国家对于国外短期资本的依靠。这种资本可以很飞速地流入或流出一个国家。经济学家称这种资本是间接外国投资,以不同于长期的或直接外国投资。

这五个国家解除去对金融系统的管制,增加了银行的数目,放松了国际借贷,但同时却缺少对金融机构适合的管理和监督。事实上,它们有时允许银行违反规定借出贷款。借贷中的风险被紧急低估。这类国家的货币与USD实行固定汇率也使它们的汇率梢许偏高。

这类政策上的错误成为形成一个脆弱的金融体系的原因。这一体系很难防范资本流向的飞速逆转。然而一九九七年亚洲金融恐慌的紧急性却没办法用这类政策性错误的程度来加以讲解。外国债权人对这一区域的长期前景只有非常肤浅的认识,这意味着他们的行为会伴随市场盲目的动荡而变化。

下面大家把巴里克拉克的这段谈话再连起来听一遍。(略)

在这一讲的最后,大家把巴里克拉克有关亚洲金融危机的第一段谈话再听一遍。(略)

各位朋友,这一讲由澳洲广播电台中文部为你制作的金融世界节目到这里就结束了


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