2015年到底会成为技术改革年，还是技术进化年?今年，苹果手表将闪亮亮相;一些初创公司估值泡沫终将破裂;苹果支付将成为移动支付业进入主流的最后机会;黑客还将大行其道，估计他们又会祸害另一家《财富》500强企业。好消息是，温馨的智能家居有望进入千家万户。
Creating a sci-fi future always takes longer than expected, if ithappens at all.
创造一个犹如科幻小说的将来，即使能成功，也一直要花费比预期更长的时间。
Consider the example of the connected home, in which everyday devices like security cameras,garage doors, and refrigerators are connected to the Internet and controlled from a smartphone.Companies have pushed the idea for several years, but have gained only limited traction.
想象一下联网家庭的样子：安全摄像头、车库门和冰箱等平时设施都与因特网连接，并可以用智能手机操控。科技公司已经宣扬这一理念好些年了，但该范围的进展却十分有限。
The technology industry’s ambitious road map will be on fully display this week at the InternationalConsumer Electronics Show, the annual gadget industry rally in Las Vegas. Executives fromelectronics makers, car manufacturers, and entertainment companies will make splashy salespitches for their latest products and, maybe, some people will eventually buy them.
在一年一度的拉斯维加斯CES国际消费电子展上，科技界充分展示了他们对将来雄心勃勃的规划。电子商品制造商、汽车生产厂家和娱乐企业的高管们都在卖力地宣扬他们的最新品，可能有一些人最后会购买这类新玩意吧。
Some years in tech turn out to be truly revolutionary. In 2007, Apple introduced the iPhone andreshaped the technology industry. Other years are more a game of catch-up, when companiesfocus on the difficult but important job of making entire categories of products live up to theiroriginal promise.
事实证明，在有的年份，科技界的确发生了真的革命性的变化。譬如2007年，苹果公司推出iPhone，重新塑造了整个技术行业。而另一些年份则更像是一场追赶的游戏，各大公司都专注于困难却要紧的工作，以期望它们的整个商品线可以践行当初许下的诺言。
What kind of year will 2015 be? Here’s what to expect.
2015年会是哪一种呢?以下是值得期待的几大趋势。
Countdown to Apple Watch
苹果手表马上问世
Apple's debut of its smartwatch within the next few months is the biggest hope yet to popularizethe Internet-connected time pieces. Manufacturers have long described the mini-computers wornon the wrist—or anywhere else on the body—as the future. But so far the public has beenunconvinced. Apple's Watch, at $349, may be the last chance to redeem the technology. Apple,of course, has had plenty of success taking existing but clunky electronics—i.e. smartphones andtablets —and making them easy to use. Why not smartwatches? The stakes are high for AppleCEO Tim Cook, who until now, has been riding high on a portfolio of product lines developed by hispredecessor, Steve Jobs. Smartwatches will be entirely Cook's baby, for better or for worse.
苹果智能手表将在下面几个月内问世——在联网计时工具尚未普及之前，这款商品无疑最让人期待。制造商们一直在介绍这种戴在手腕或身体其他部位的微型计算机，声称它们就是电子设施业的将来。然而到现在为止，公众并不买账。
349USD起售的苹果手表或许是救赎这项技术的最后机会。当然，就改良市面上表现不佳的电子商品，让它们变得愈加便捷用而言，苹果已经获得过很多成功——譬如智能手机和平板电脑，那样为什么不试一试智能手表呢?这款商品对苹果公司首席实行官蒂姆•库克具备特殊意义。由于到现在为止，他一直都在倚赖史蒂夫•乔布斯塑造的各种商品。无论好坏，苹果手表将成为库克亲生的孩子。
Start-up valuation bubble springs some leaks
初创公司估值泡沫将破裂
Every few weeks, a money-losing start-up gets a sky-high valuation from investors. Pinterest, theonline bulletin board, gets a $5 billion valuation. Digital payments company Square is priced at ahefty $6 billion. Meanwhile, Snapchat, the photo messaging service, gets an even bigger $10 billionvaluation. This year, look for some air to go out of the bubble. "There will be some really high-profile blow ups," says Venky Ganesan, a venture capitalist with Menlo Ventures. Timing when thetech industry will deflate is a favorite Silicon Valley parlor game. Despite dire predictions over thepast few years, startups keep rising in value. Ganesan, whose firm has invested in high-fliers like ridehailing service Uber , says momentum is pushing investors to bid up valuationsin shaky businesses like a game of musical chairs. In the end, some investors will lose a lot ofmoney, he says, if they haven't already. Fab, an e-commerce startup that had a valuation over $1billion before imploding in 2014, may be a sign of things to come. Still,Ganesan says that companies that have a real business will continue to command high prices. Asfor the others, well, "No one is calling reporters when bad news is happening," he says.
每隔几周，都会有一家亏本的初创公司得到投资者的天价估值。图片社交网站Pinterest被估价50亿USD，数字支付公司Square被估价60亿USD，照片信息服务Snapchat甚至得到高达100亿USD的估价。今年该是泡沫破裂之时了。门罗风投企业的风险投资家温基•加纳森表示：“今年将会有很多引人注目的初创公司跌下神坛。”预测技术业泡沫将何时破裂，是硅谷专家们最爱玩的游戏。尽管过去几年有过很多悲观预言，但初创企业的估值依然节节攀升。加纳森所在的公司投资了打车服务商Uber等雄心勃勃的公司。他说，目前的势头促进投资者进一步推高那些还没站稳脚跟的企业的估值，这就像在玩抢椅子游戏，到最后一定会有投资者损失一大笔钱，有些目前已经亏本了。电商初创公司Fab过去得到过10亿USD的估值，却在2014年崩溃，这或许昭示着将来的景象。不过，加纳森也表示，拥有真的出色业务的初创公司依然能得到非常高的估值，至于其他公司，好吧，“当局势不妙时，无人会公告记者的。”
Show me the money
移动钱包前路漫漫
Companies trying to revolutionize how people pay at store cash registers inevitably describe usingcash and credit cards as a huge inconvenience. Reality check: if occasionally having to pull outyour wallet is among your biggest problems, then you're lucky. Still, look for mobile payments tomake some gains this year. The general idea is replace credit cards and cash with smartphones, theSwiss Army knife of devices. Wave your phone in front of a store terminal and, presto, yourpurchase is billed to your bank or credit card account. Apple Pay, introduced last year to greatfanfare, is just one of the many services jostling for users. Previous efforts by PayPal, Visa'sPayWave, and MasterCard'sPayPass largely failed to catch on. Jan Dawson, an analyst withJackdaw Research, expects the technology to gain more traction this year—particularly overseas—after a strong showing among early adopters in 2014. But he warned that widespread adoptionis still sometime off in future. "It’s a slow burn technology," he says. "It's not going to take theworld by storm next year."
一些公司正在试图改变大家在商店收银台前的付款方法，他们会不可防止地夸大现金和信用卡的不便之处。事实上，假如时常掏出钱包就是你日常最大的麻烦，那你可真是幸运。不过大家仍然可以期待移动支付在今年有所进展。这项技术的核心思想就是用设施中的瑞士军刀——智能手机——来取代信用卡和现金。在商店终端前摇一摇手机，你的借记卡或信用卡账户就会支付消费金额。去年大张旗鼓问世的苹果支付，只不过争夺用户的海量相同种类服务中的一种。贝宝、Visa的PayWave和万事达卡的PayPass之前的尝试，在非常大程度上都未能吸引用户。研究公司Jackdaw Research的剖析师简•道森觉得，该技术在2014年的早期使用者中表现惊艳，应该可以在今年达成更大进步——特别是在美国以外。但他也表示，移动支付仍需肯定时间才会被广泛用。道森说：“这是一项慢热的技术，它不会在明年就颠覆世界。”
Hackers claim another victim
黑客将继续发动攻击
Hackers will infiltrate the computer system of yet another Fortune 500 company this year. You canpractically count on it. Why? In recent years, hackers have seemed to do it with impunity. Allthose billions of dollars spent on cyber security turned out to be wasted money. The stakes arehuge, of course. Just look at Sony Pictures, which suffered a massive breach that involved thoseresponsible posting the movie studio's sensitive internal documents online. Before Sony, there wasTarget, Home Depot, JPMorgan Chase, eBay, and Michaels Stores. Security consultants say thatmany companies fall victim without ever realizing it. For consumers, the best defense is to payclose attention to credit card statements, maintain strong passwords and pray that companies doa far better job protecting their personal information.
黑客今年将会入侵另一家《财富》500强企业的计算机系统。你可以坐等它的发生。为何?近年来，黑客好像可以肆意妄为，而且不会遭到任何惩罚。所有花在互联网安全上的钱仿佛都打了水漂。当然，这是利益攸关的事情。看看索尼影业企业的遭遇吧，这家用电器影公司遭遇大规模攻击，很多敏锐的内部文件被发布到了网上。而在索尼之前的受害者还包含塔吉特百货、家得宝、摩根大通、eBay和Michaels Stores。安全顾问表示，很多公司甚至都没意识到自己已经被攻破了。对买家来讲，最好的防卫手段就是密切关注你的信用卡对账单，设立强密码，并祈祷那些公司能更好地保护他们的个人信息。
Home sweet home
甜蜜的智能家居
This is the year when smart homes, in which everything from ovens to door locks to thermostatsare connected online, reach beyond the fringe to more of the mainstream. The sales pitch is thatpeople with connected homes can control their appliances and other electronics using a singleremote: their smartphone. The reality, however, falls far short. For example, homeowners end uphaving to use different apps to turn appliances on and off instead of being able to do so from acentral hub. Incompatibility is a big problem. Tech companies like Apple, Samsung, and 谷歌 andappliance makers are already trying to solve the problem by recruiting outside developers to usetheir smart home software and enlisting smart appliance makers as partners. In the end, morepeople will have reason to spend the extra money on connected home electronics, which until nowhave seemed like more of an expensive and unnecessary hassle.
今年，从微波炉到门锁，再到恒温器。全部联网的智能家居将会从边缘走向主流。智能家居的所谓卖点在于：拥有智能家居的人仅需借助一个远程控制端——智能手机，就能控制他们的家用电器和其他电子商品。然而现实和理想还差得非常远。譬如，用户不能不安装各种各样的应用来开关电器，而不是借助一个枢纽型的应用来完成这个程序。兼容性差是另外一个大问题。苹果、三星、Google等科技公司和电器厂家已经开始尝试着解决这一问题。他们招募了外部开发职员来用智能家居软件，并列出可以作为合伙人的智能家居生产厂家。相信到最后，愈加多的人会有理由花上额外的一笔钱来购买联网家用电器。尽管到现在为止，这看着更像是昂贵和没必要的麻烦。
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